I’ve written before about my wish for a “Figma for architecture”, a tool that would enable increasingly automated design as AI improves, and eventually absorb landscape architecture, interior design, and civil, structural, and MEP engineering too.
re: "Elon says he needs 10 billion miles for FSD. That’s roughly 200 million video hours. Masonry is far more complicated than driving. So how many hours of training data will we need, and where will they come from?
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The issue with self-driving vehicles is not so much the complexity, but the room for error multiplied against the magnitude potential harm. I think masonry can tolerate a much higher error rate.
I think that’s right, and it probably means that we move from egocentric video to teleoperation sooner than later, then from teleoperation to autonomous operation soon after that. I just don’t know how soon, or how quickly an autonomous humanoid mason can match a master human mason. What's your over/under on five years?
It is incredible. I think the missing ingredient is political will more than coordination, though it’s certainly some of both. The main reason our current provincial government hasn’t moved on single stairs yet is that the Premier doesn’t want to upset the fire chiefs, for example. At some point, you just have to accept the tradeoff (wisely) and do the thing.
re: "Elon says he needs 10 billion miles for FSD. That’s roughly 200 million video hours. Masonry is far more complicated than driving. So how many hours of training data will we need, and where will they come from?
"
The issue with self-driving vehicles is not so much the complexity, but the room for error multiplied against the magnitude potential harm. I think masonry can tolerate a much higher error rate.
I think that’s right, and it probably means that we move from egocentric video to teleoperation sooner than later, then from teleoperation to autonomous operation soon after that. I just don’t know how soon, or how quickly an autonomous humanoid mason can match a master human mason. What's your over/under on five years?
It is incredible. I think the missing ingredient is political will more than coordination, though it’s certainly some of both. The main reason our current provincial government hasn’t moved on single stairs yet is that the Premier doesn’t want to upset the fire chiefs, for example. At some point, you just have to accept the tradeoff (wisely) and do the thing.