#32

1. One big takeaway from Monday’s general election is that the Conservative Party’s 41.3% share of the popular vote—its strongest showing since Brian Mulroney’s 1984 landslide—was still insufficient to form government. The decisive factor was the NDP’s collapse to a record-low 6.3%, which removed most of the left-of-centre vote split that had benefited the Conservatives in the Harper era.
   
   There’s now a lot of talk that Canada might be shifting toward an effective two-party system, as progressive voters are consolidating under the Liberal banner. There’s further talk as to whether the Conservatives could be competitive in such a system.
   
   I think they can, but only if they grab more real estate in cities.
   
   Of the 343 federal ridings, 111 are located entirely inside the urban core of a Census Metropolitan Area—defined as an urban centre of at least 50,000 residents within a region of 100,000 or more. Of those, the Liberals won 73 and the Conservatives 28. The disparity is even starker in Toronto, where the Liberals captured 22 of 25 seats.
   
   Had the urban ridings been split evenly, the Conservatives would have formed the next government.
   

2. Canada’s big cities—and Toronto is a prime example—share at least four persistent shortcomings: housing that is increasingly unaffordable, chronically congested streets, transit systems that are overcrowded, slow, and geographically limited, and public spaces that are deteriorating in cleanliness and safety. Some are worse than others, but the pattern is clear.
   
   These deficiencies create a substantial opening for a distinctively conservative solution set. Pierre Poilievre recognized this and emphasized the need to improve housing affordability and crack down on crime, and gained seven additional urban seats as a result.
   
   To build on that progress, the party should broaden its message to include questions of state capacity in tackling traffic congestion and improving transit, and prioritize the recruitment of higher-quality candidates even in ridings that currently appear unwinnable.
   
   This isn’t a complete solution to Conservative electability in a two-party system, but it is, in my view, critical to any credible path to government.
   

3. It would really help the Federal Conservatives if Ontario’s Conservative Premier had done more over the past seven years to improve housing affordability, traffic congestion, and the quality and security of urban public spaces. (To his limited credit, Doug Ford is at least making meaningful progress in expanding urban and regional transit networks.)
   
   There is, however, precedent for late-course correction: it took John Tory two largely unproductive terms as mayor before he finally started taking housing affordability seriously in his brief third term. I’m now hoping that we see a comparable shift from Ford.
   
   For better or worse, the Conservative brand spans both levels of government, and the provinces control the levers most critical to positive change in cities. Any credible federal strategy to win urban Canada will therefore require a coordinated effort with provincial counterparts, beginning in Ontario.
   
   As much as I appreciated Jamil Jivani’s election night comments about Ford’s unprincipled and unserious governance, it’s time to settle any lingering beefs and start rowing in the same direction.
   

4. Another missing element is intellectual infrastructure. Canada lacks a new generation of right-of-centre think tanks that specialize in urban policy.
   
   The CD Howe and Fraser Institutes have produced some valuable work on housing regulation and municipal service delivery, but it’s been too sporadic and limited to shift the public conversation. If urban issues are to develop a recognizably conservative vocabulary, and if Canadans are to benefit from stronger urban policy, think-tank research must dig deeper into zoning reform, building-code modernization, and infrastructure delivery.
   
   Were I a billionaire looking to contribute, I’d begin by hiring Conrad Speckert to write more about building codes and Alon Levy to write more about transit planning and development.
   

5. Speaking of urban issues and policy, we’re now less than a month away from the 2025 Missing Middle Summit. It’s taking place all day on May 21st at the Toronto Reference Library.
   
   This event is for current and aspiring missing middle housing developers in Toronto, as well as the architects, planners, consultants, contractors, and lenders who enable their projects.
   
   If you’re one of them, get a ticket asap before they sell out: missingmiddlesummit.com.